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adam: before we get to the debt ceiling. california overestimated how much tax revenue they would get from the facebook ipo. the overestimated by $600 million. you can hear jerry brown doing a homer simpson. can you trust governments to get the numbers right? the fight over the debt ceiling is in full force. as democratdemocrats propose a o eliminate it completely and the ratings have come out with two scenarios in which it was downgraded the u.s. credit rating. not good news. some republicans are relishing the debt ceiling does indeed have to be raised. joining us now, ihs chief economist and we appreciate you being here. is this fight we are about to have necessary, and what is going to happen to whether it is the global market, 401(k), what will happen to all of us if congress passes this fight? >> this is not a necessary fight. this situation created by congress which sent the debt ceilinfrom years ago in hopes it would impose some discipline but of course it hasn't because it has been raised and raised and raised and no
adam: before we get to the debt ceiling. california overestimated how much tax revenue they would get from the facebook ipo. the overestimated by $600 million. you can hear jerry brown doing a homer simpson. can you trust governments to get the numbers right? the fight over the debt ceiling is in full force. as democratdemocrats propose a o eliminate it completely and the ratings have come out with two scenarios in which it was downgraded the u.s. credit rating. not good news. some republicans...
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Jan 17, 2013
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>> look, there is a long tradition here of congress acting to raise the debt ceiling. this is a power that they've brought -- that they've given themselves to do. and the point is -- without drama and delay. a monthly extension is drama, okay? congress should simply do its job. it should not -- we're not going to negotiate over extending the debt ceiling. >> but is the president saying he's willing to revisit this within a year? would he like five years? i mean, what is he saying? >> i think the president made clear the other day that he would happily take on the responsibility himself if congress can't handle it. so the fact is, congress should simply extend the debt ceiling, and do so in a manner that causes no concern to the economy and to global markets, that does not in any way suggest that washington is about to engage in another process that results in a self-inflicted wound to the economy. so it's sort of a moot point because it should just be extended in a way that does not raise concern about whether or not the united states of america pays its bills. >> okay
>> look, there is a long tradition here of congress acting to raise the debt ceiling. this is a power that they've brought -- that they've given themselves to do. and the point is -- without drama and delay. a monthly extension is drama, okay? congress should simply do its job. it should not -- we're not going to negotiate over extending the debt ceiling. >> but is the president saying he's willing to revisit this within a year? would he like five years? i mean, what is he saying?...
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Jan 17, 2013
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debt ceiling. >> narrator: early on, republican freshmen attended orientation sessions. republican strategist frank luntz ran one of them. >> and i asked the question, how many of you are going to vote for the debt ceiling? and only three or four of them raised their hands. and i said, if you vote for the debt ceiling, the people who put you in office are going to knock you out. >> if you vote for the debt ceiling, you're voting for your own death certificate, political death certificate. >> narrator: for his part, the president decided to try something new: personal politics. he figured he could connect to the republican leader, john boehner. >> obama told his staff, john boehner is a country club republican, a golf-playing, cigarette smoking deal-maker. >> narrator: the president invited boehner to play golf with him at andrews air force base. >> and afterward, they go back to the clubhouse, and they're having a drink; there's a photo op. and it's at that point when boehner says to the president, "hey, you know, on this debt ceiling stuff, we ought to do something big.
debt ceiling. >> narrator: early on, republican freshmen attended orientation sessions. republican strategist frank luntz ran one of them. >> and i asked the question, how many of you are going to vote for the debt ceiling? and only three or four of them raised their hands. and i said, if you vote for the debt ceiling, the people who put you in office are going to knock you out. >> if you vote for the debt ceiling, you're voting for your own death certificate, political death...
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Jan 17, 2013
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we don't have to raise debt ceiling if sequestration happens. as a result republicans had a bargaining chip. lori: talk about the investments. emerging markets you like china and asia. in our tease we said germany too. >> yes. lori: i don't know if germany is really emerging markets. we'll start with emerging markets and move on. >> 2012 to 2013, 2012 we were heavily allocated in the u.s. now we're looking back overseas again. i'm not suggesting a dark cloud over europe is gone right now but i do think there are great opportunities in northern europe and germany remains as the one gem in europe in terms of that economic prowess. lori: tell me about the emerging markets. these economies in many ways are outperforming the u.s. many say put emerging markets into retirement if you want to earn a decent yield at this point you have to mix it up with the emerging markets. not alternative investment it used to be. >> correct. the old bric trade from 2007 and pull out r and o, invest in brazil and china those are two countries to be in. europe and u.s.
we don't have to raise debt ceiling if sequestration happens. as a result republicans had a bargaining chip. lori: talk about the investments. emerging markets you like china and asia. in our tease we said germany too. >> yes. lori: i don't know if germany is really emerging markets. we'll start with emerging markets and move on. >> 2012 to 2013, 2012 we were heavily allocated in the u.s. now we're looking back overseas again. i'm not suggesting a dark cloud over europe is gone...
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ceiling i mean there's absolutely no reason why there should be a specified ceiling to the federal debt congress imposes that on itself and then having imposed it has to vote to lift it which it inevitably must so this is a pretty awesome fishel crisis a purely political crisis if you look away from the politics of washington at the u.s. economy it is unquestionably in recovery mode and what's most exciting about it right now is the way the discovery of shale gas in the exploitation of shale oil is ushering in a new era in which the united states will become energy independent for the first time in two generations i think that's going to be the cue for a written a song for the american manufacturing and the world is going to be pretty surprised by what the united states does economically over the next ten years which by the way has big implications for russia to. ten years ago if you were running gazprom you never thought for a minute that you would find yourself being on the cards by north america but that's what's happening bad implications for russia and i think that's one thing that
ceiling i mean there's absolutely no reason why there should be a specified ceiling to the federal debt congress imposes that on itself and then having imposed it has to vote to lift it which it inevitably must so this is a pretty awesome fishel crisis a purely political crisis if you look away from the politics of washington at the u.s. economy it is unquestionably in recovery mode and what's most exciting about it right now is the way the discovery of shale gas in the exploitation of shale...
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Jan 17, 2013
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without going into all of the different ramifications i want to say a word about the debt ceiling which is not everybody understands what it's about. the debt ceiling which congress has to do periodically as gives the government money to pay its existing bills. it doesn't create new spending so it's like a family trying to improve its credit rating not the most effective way to improve the credit rating and was the slow solution to the debt ceiling in august of 2011 that of the u.s. downgraded last time brough so it's very important that congress take the necessary action to raise the debt ceiling to avoid a situation where our government doesn't pay its bills. estimate the number of people have expressed concern about how much of the challenges actually were addressed in the deal. as you mentioned is certainly went part way that leaves a number of issues still on the table and additional negotiations are learning to read what you characterize that as a class that is facing us or do you think that it's not as concerning as it was when you raised that term initially? >> as i said the fis
without going into all of the different ramifications i want to say a word about the debt ceiling which is not everybody understands what it's about. the debt ceiling which congress has to do periodically as gives the government money to pay its existing bills. it doesn't create new spending so it's like a family trying to improve its credit rating not the most effective way to improve the credit rating and was the slow solution to the debt ceiling in august of 2011 that of the u.s. downgraded...
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Jan 17, 2013
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take a look now at what the debt ceiling would be, if you reached the debt ceiling and reduced government spending by that amount, mark sandy, others suggest it should be a 7% hit to gdp. so, simon, a big war of numbers, and big war of words on both sides, as we game out what happens, first with the debt ceiling, then we continue resolution, and also the sequester. simon? >> let's hope they rise above. thank you very much, steve liesman with the fiscal cliff. >>> it's been the trade of many people's lifetimes, but with the courages sill at multiyear lows. and the meeting next week, will the trade last? it's the "money in motion" section. good morning. >> good morning. good to be with you guys. what about this dollar/yen trade? obviously the dollar is substantially higher today, but monday/tuesday/wednesday, we've reversed the trend, the yen was actually higher. where do we go from here? >> i think steve's presentation is one of the reasons i'm cautious on this trade. we're within a whisker of the obvious target. i think that trade level will stall. to me i think the better trade is to tak
take a look now at what the debt ceiling would be, if you reached the debt ceiling and reduced government spending by that amount, mark sandy, others suggest it should be a 7% hit to gdp. so, simon, a big war of numbers, and big war of words on both sides, as we game out what happens, first with the debt ceiling, then we continue resolution, and also the sequester. simon? >> let's hope they rise above. thank you very much, steve liesman with the fiscal cliff. >>> it's been the...
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Jan 17, 2013
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there's the debt ceiling. zandi i talked to the other day, talked to some other economists, they're saying if you hit the debt ceiling, you stayed there, you made government spending equal cash flow would be about 7% hit to gdp. essentially taking a trillion dollars out of the economy. so there it is, guys. the debt ceiling game, home edition, have fun tonight. >> this is actually much bigger deal. >> it's a huge deal. >> but would never last -- >> never going to happen, right? that's what people say. >> okay. >> relax, steve. >> i'm okay. >> what happens is the rating agencies -- >> your heart rate is going. >> what's that? >> what about the ratings agencies if they were to downgrade us, if we went over, if we went over for a day it's one thing, if we went over and stayed for a week, do they look at it just because washington can't get along, that's reason enough for another downgrade? >> that's a critical question. that's why the democrats are likely to define default as missing any government payment becaus
there's the debt ceiling. zandi i talked to the other day, talked to some other economists, they're saying if you hit the debt ceiling, you stayed there, you made government spending equal cash flow would be about 7% hit to gdp. essentially taking a trillion dollars out of the economy. so there it is, guys. the debt ceiling game, home edition, have fun tonight. >> this is actually much bigger deal. >> it's a huge deal. >> but would never last -- >> never going to happen,...
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Jan 17, 2013
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he'd rather have a conversation about guns than the debt ceiling? >> i think the president is trying to get political support from his base, maybe he feels it strengthens him going into negotiations with the republicans or the fiscal issues. listen these guys won't even ban assault weapons, how can you trust them on taxes and spending. i see it as building up his political position which is not wrong but i don't think in his heart of hearts he thinks he's going to pass any significant legislation. >> congressman king in the studio after my asking all the time. >> i couldn't stay away from you, soledad. >> she's not really a tough interviewer is she? >> she's very nice and multiracial -- >> are we rolling on this? i love this. keep the nice part. i would appreciate that. >> she was the irish-american woman of the year, there you go. >> and i accepted. nice to have you congressman, appreciate it. >>> other stories making news john has that for us. >> lots of questions about the story involving notre dame's manti te'o and his girlfriend who was suppose
he'd rather have a conversation about guns than the debt ceiling? >> i think the president is trying to get political support from his base, maybe he feels it strengthens him going into negotiations with the republicans or the fiscal issues. listen these guys won't even ban assault weapons, how can you trust them on taxes and spending. i see it as building up his political position which is not wrong but i don't think in his heart of hearts he thinks he's going to pass any significant...